Nebraska Omaha

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	284.0
Current RPI:	284
Expected SOS:	139
Current SOS:	139
Current Record:	7-22
Expected Record:	7-22
Current Conf Record:	4-11
Expected Conf Record:	4-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-8
Current OOC Record:	3-11
Expected OOC Record:	3-11
Expected OOC RPI:	269
Expected OOC SOS:	124

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-22	284.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nebraska Omaha.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	A	89-80	L	0%
11-12	Oklahoma (49.0)	B12	A	108-89	L	0%
11-14	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	A	103-71	L	0%
11-17	Louisville (38.0)	ACC	A	87-78	L	0%
11-20	TCU (26.0)	B12	A	99-66	L	0%
11-24	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	N	85-86	L	0%
11-25	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	N	75-73	L	0%
11-29	Drake (166.0)	MVC	H	75-73	W	100%
12-3	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	86-73	L	0%
12-5	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	A	77-70	L	0%
12-9	Drake (166.0)	MVC	A	93-74	L	0%
12-13	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	H	77-74	W	100%
12-18	Kansas (5.0)	B12	A	109-64	L	0%
12-21	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	H	84-71	W	100%
12-30	Oral Roberts (255.0)	Sum	A	93-74	L	0%
1-6	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	H	88-101	L	0%
1-11	Western Illinois (302.0)	Sum	A	66-87	W	100%
1-13	Fort Wayne (209.0)	Sum	A	82-78	L	0%
1-18	Denver (224.0)	Sum	H	86-80	W	100%
1-20	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	H	71-85	L	0%
1-25	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	A	73-58	L	0%
1-30	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	A	80-60	L	0%
2-8	Western Illinois (302.0)	Sum	H	71-68	W	100%
2-10	Fort Wayne (209.0)	Sum	H	90-85	W	100%
2-14	Denver (224.0)	Sum	A	94-78	L	0%
2-17	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	A	79-64	L	0%
2-22	Oral Roberts (255.0)	Sum	H	75-83	L	0%
2-24	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	H	62-84	L	0%
3-3	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	N	87-73	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nebraska Omaha's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Nebraska Omaha's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Nebraska Omaha.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	26.51	26.51	22.12	22.12	-14.78	-14.78
South Dakota	Sum	6.12	6.12	70.37	70.37	2.49	2.49
South Dakota St.	Sum	4.55	4.55	78.57	78.57	2.60	2.60
Denver	Sum	4.45	4.45	46.15	46.15	-0.34	-0.34
North Dakota St.	Sum	4.40	4.40	37.04	37.04	-1.14	-1.14
Oral Roberts	Sum	4.31	4.31	23.08	23.08	-2.32	-2.32
Fort Wayne	Sum	4.30	4.30	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	4.28	4.28	36.36	36.36	-1.17	-1.17
Drake	MVC	3.59	3.59	48.28	48.28	-0.12	-0.12
Montana St.	BSky	3.54	3.54	35.71	35.71	-1.01	-1.01
TCU	B12	1.97	1.97	64.52	64.52	0.57	0.57
Kansas	B12	1.92	1.92	78.79	78.79	1.10	1.10
UC Santa Barbara	BW	1.84	1.84	68.97	68.97	0.70	0.70
Oklahoma	B12	1.83	1.83	56.67	56.67	0.24	0.24
New Mexico	MWC	1.78	1.78	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
Tennessee Tech	OVC	1.78	1.78	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Washington	P12	1.75	1.75	61.29	61.29	0.40	0.40
Arkansas St.	SB	1.72	1.72	31.03	31.03	-0.65	-0.65
Jackson St.	SWAC	1.72	1.72	31.03	31.03	-0.65	-0.65
Louisville	ACC	1.72	1.72	59.38	59.38	0.32	0.32
Missouri St.	MVC	0.35	0.35	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.35	0.35	33.33	33.33	-0.12	-0.12
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.27	0.27	57.58	57.58	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.27	0.27	66.67	66.67	0.09	0.09
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.26	0.26	61.29	61.29	0.06	0.06
Colorado	P12	0.25	0.25	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.25	0.25	59.38	59.38	0.05	0.05
Montana	BSky	0.23	0.23	77.42	77.42	0.13	0.13
Iowa St.	B12	0.23	0.23	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
UC Irvine	BW	0.21	0.21	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.20	0.20	13.33	13.33	-0.15	-0.15
San Jose St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	10.34	10.34	-0.16	-0.16
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.19	0.19	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
West Virginia	B12	0.19	0.19	70.59	70.59	0.08	0.08
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.17	0.17	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.17	0.17	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.17	0.17	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Baylor	B12	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.16	0.16	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.16	0.16	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Oakland	Horz	0.15	0.15	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.14	0.14	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	16.67	16.67	-0.10	-0.10
UMKC	WAC	0.14	0.14	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
USC	P12	0.14	0.14	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.14	0.14	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Little Rock	SB	0.12	0.12	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Minnesota	B10	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Portland St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
UNLV	MWC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.11	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Arizona	P12	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Duke	ACC	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.11	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Illinois St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.11	0.11	84.38	84.38	0.08	0.08
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.11	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Pepperdine	WCC	0.09	0.09	16.13	16.13	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.09	0.09	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
UTEP	CUSA	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
American	Pat	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Butler	BE	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
IUPUI	Horz	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.05	-0.05
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Appalachian St.	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Idaho	BSky	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	82.76	82.76	0.04	0.04
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	83.33	83.33	0.03	0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01